Triggers and Causes

Curtis Lusmore

In the tech world, the common wisdom is that when things go wrong we have blameless post-mortems. The idea here is that preventing the triggering event from occurring is only part of the solution. The other part, often the bigger part, is mitigating other factors which cause the event to have such a large impact. Sometimes it’s not possible to prevent all triggering events, and we can improve our resilience and reliability more effectively by mitigating common contributing factors to outages.

We ask questions like, “Can we detect the triggering event sooner?” “Can we speed up our response process?” “Can we limit the number of people impacted, or the degree to which they are impacted?” “Can we automate an error-prone manual process?” “Can we allow a system to self-correct?”

If a human accidentally runs a destructive query against your production database, the question isn’t, “Why did they do that?” It’s, “Why were they able to do that?” “Why did they need to do that?” “Are we missing tools that could do this safer?” “Can we recover from this faster?” Mistakes are inevitable. What matters more than trying to prevent all mistakes from happening, is improving our processes to mitigate the impact and recover faster.

This Numberphile video, Stable Rollers, is a really simple analogy that shows the difference between recovering well and recovering poorly from errors, and how this is far more important to resilience than eliminating initial errors.

I think we do this pretty well in the tech world, but this certainly isn’t universal across all fields. The politics of the last year or so have shown us that it’s easy to get sucked into focusing on the triggers rather than all of the causes.

During the bushfires last summer, parts of the media seemed to be more interested in what triggered the fires, lightning strikes or arsonists, rather than what caused them to be so bad, climate change.

During the pandemic, as Victoria entered its second lockdown, the media were more interested in what triggered the second wave than they were in whether the government’s plan would help us recover from it. Don’t get me wrong, the second wave was tough and a lot of people suffered or died from it. But the cause of that suffering, here and to a far greater extent internationally, isn’t the initial triggering outbreak. It’s the response, or lack thereof, which allows the virus to spread so rapidly. The countries that have done best owe more to their response to domestic spread than to their ability to prevent imported cases.

This extends to the blame game surrounding the origins of the virus itself. For a country to blame all of the suffering they’ve experienced on China is to consider themselves powerless to mitigate the causes of spread domestically, and to admit that they would also be powerless to stop an actual biological weapon were one ever to be used.

We should stop focusing so much on the triggering events and start focusing more on what causes the event to spiral out of control. Mistakes are inevitable and you can't eliminate all triggers, but you can improve your processes for responding and mitigating causes. As I said, I think in tech we do this better than most other industries, but it will probably take sustained, deliberate effort by all of us to keep it that way.